UK risks missing out

New CEBR research reveals that business and leisure passengers through Heathrow alone account for over £16 billion spent across the UK.

• US travellers provide the biggest boost, accounting for £3.74bn, or nearly a quarter of total spend, demonstrating the importance of restoring vital transatlantic routes.

• Research reveals prize to the UK as total visitor expenditure could increase to over £18bn by 2025 if the UK fully reopens this summer, benefitting business across the country from London to Dundee. 

• Government is set to review the green list ahead of 7 June, almost a year after mandatory quarantine requirements came into force.

• The announcement comes ahead of the launch of a dedicated red list arrivals facility at Heathrow, creating additional capacity for arrivals from an expanded green list.

The UK is set to miss out on billions of pounds of Heathrow passenger spend if the green list is not extended as part of the travel review on June 7^th. New research from the CEBR – a leading economic forecasting group – reveals that business and leisure passengers arriving at Heathrow alone spend over £16 billion pounds across the country. This passenger spend is vital, not only for the aviation industry, but to sustain jobs at thousands of businesses, from boutiques on Bond Street to distilleries in Dundee.

US visitors travelling through Heathrow are the largest source of inbound tourism revenue for the entire economy, with these passengers accounting for £3.74 billion pounds, nearly a quarter (23%) of total spend while visiting the UK. Prior to the pandemic, the US was the top market for passenger traffic, with LHR – JFK one of the world’s most lucrative routes and over 21 million passengers travelling from the airport to America in 2019. This highlights the urgent need to restore the UK’s transatlantic routes – by adding the US to the green list at the earliest opportunity. These visitors support towns and cities across the UK, with total spend from US passengers contributing over £700m to the Scottish economy alone, according to Visit Britain.

However, there’s a risk that these US visitors could go elsewhere. Italy has opened its doors to fully vaccinated American travellers, and France is preparing to follow suit. If EU countries continue to move quickly and more efficiently to restore their US links, then the UK could end up giving these economic opportunities away to the EU, just as the Government is supposed to be laying the groundwork for its Global Britain ambitions.

Since the initial restart of international travel on May 17^th, rapid progress has been made with the global vaccine rollout, especially in the US where the vaccination rate is fast catching up to the UK’s. This progress, alongside testing and the Government’s own risk-based controls, allows for links to be safely restored to more of the UK’s low risk key trading partners, unleashing the huge economic contribution of these visitors, while protecting the gains made in the fight against this virus.

The CEBR research also indicates that expenditure by passengers travelling through Heathrow is set to grow to £18.1bn a year by the middle of the decade, if international air travel resumes this summer. But if conditions prevent that and visitor numbers grow more slowly, expenditure could fall by more than 18% to £13.6bn by 2025.

This news comes as Heathrow is working with the Government to launch a new dedicated red list arrivals facility, creating more capacity for arrivals from an expanded green list. At first, the dedicated facility will be in Terminal 3 and launch on June 1^st, before it is moved to Terminal 4.

Heathrow CEO, John Holland-Kaye, said: “This research shows just how many businesses across the UK are losing out because of the Government’s restrictions on access to overseas visitors and markets. The Government has the tools to protect both public health and the economy and Ministers must unlock more low risk destinations across Europe, as well as the US, as part of the next review on June 7^th.”

Jace Tyrrell, Chief Executive of New West End Company in London, said: “The streets of London are usually bustling with tourists at this time of year as they fly in not just to visit our world famous landmarks, but to spend money in our shops, theatres, hotels and restaurants. Many of these businesses have lost out enormously in the last fifteen months, impacting livelihoods across the capital, so a return of visitors this summer from overseas would be hugely welcome. We urge the Government to do all it can to enable their safe return.”

Andrew McKenzie Smith, Founder of Lindores Abbey Distillery in Newburgh, Fife, said: “Distilleries in Scotland are renowned across the world. It’s why tourists – especially from the US – have always flown in in their droves to see our craftsmen and women in action, bringing millions of pounds with them which helps support local workers, businesses and communities. However, without overseas travel, this vital source of revenue has been lost for the last year to the detriment of these very same people. It’s not just airports and airlines counting on its resumption. It’s distillers across Fife and wider Scotland like ourselves.”